The $18 Million Club Just Opened, and It Will Decide the Next Three Seasons

Philadelphia tendered Leo Carlsson an offer sheet on July 3 that was designed to be unmatchable: five years, $90 million, an $18 million average annual value, the richest per-season number in the history of the sport. Anaheim matched it anyway, and by doing so turned down four first-round picks. Carlsson’s deal runs from this season through 2030-31.

The record lasted a matter of weeks. San Jose extended Macklin Celebrini for five years and $94 million at an $18.8 million AAV shortly after he turned 20, and the ceiling moved again. Two contracts, one summer, and every agent in the league now has a new comparable.

Anaheim has a second problem

Matching Carlsson was the easy part. Cutter Gauthier is a restricted free agent who scored 41 goals and put up 69 points last season and is, as of the third week of August, unsigned. Lyle Richardson reported on August 18 that Gauthier turned down four years at $13 million per season and has also declined a four-year offer in the $15 million range. That is not a negotiation over term. That is a player watching his linemate get $18 million and recalculating.

The Ducks have short-term outs. Troy Terry’s placement on long-term injured reserve creates immediate room, and Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn both come off the books as unrestricted free agents next summer. But LTIR relief evaporates the day Terry is healthy, which means Anaheim is likely trading one of Kreider or Killorn at some point this season regardless of how the Gauthier file resolves.

Dallas is already over

The Stars re-signed Jason Robertson for one year at $12 million, a deal structured to get him to unrestricted free agency next summer with maximum leverage, and it left them roughly $1.36 million above the $104 million cap. Kyle Capobianco and Colin Blackwell are the obvious candidates to be moved or demoted to square the ledger. None of that changes what Dallas is on the ice, but a team operating at the ceiling in an 84-game season has no cushion for a long-term injury, and that is a genuine risk to a points total sitting above 100.

Colorado’s bill comes due in July

Cale Makar turns 28 during the coming season and becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Avalanche have more than $32 million in projected space for 2027-28, and something close to $20 million of it is spoken for the moment Makar signs. Brent Burns, Nicolas Roy, Artturi Lehkonen and Scott Wedgewood are also unrestricted. Colorado is a legitimate Cup contender this season, priced around +750, and the roster around the core is going to look different in eighteen months.

Who this actually helps

Montreal. The Canadiens built their core before the market exploded, with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Lane Hutson all signed below $9 million per season, and they extended Ivan Demidov for eight years at a $9.15 million AAV. Every dollar of that looks better each time somebody else signs an $18 million contract. Montreal has been linked to Toronto’s Matthew Knies and Columbus’s Kirill Marchenko while hunting a top-six forward, and they are one of the few contenders with the flexibility to absorb a real salary.

The prediction that follows from all of this is uncomfortable for anyone holding a futures ticket on a team at the cap line. The clubs best positioned for 2027 and 2028 are the ones that got their stars signed before July 2026. Everyone else is bidding against a number that did not exist three months ago.

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