Gavin McKenna Gets First-Line Power Play in Toronto. That Is the Calder Bet.
The No. 1 pick opens at +310, behind Porter Martone. What separates them is not talent: it is who has already proven a coaching staff will play him.
Quick answers
Why was Gavin McKenna behind Porter Martone in Calder odds?
Martone opened at +275 after producing 10 points in nine NHL games, while McKenna opened at +310 without NHL regular-season evidence. The market was pricing Martone's demonstrated pace and role against McKenna's higher uncertainty.
What supports Gavin McKenna's Calder Trophy case?
Toronto signalled that McKenna could receive first-unit power-play time after he produced 51 points in 35 games at Penn State. That role offers a direct route to the scoring totals that usually shape Calder voting, if the plan holds.
The first overall pick is not the Calder favourite. He is second, and the reason has almost nothing to do with how good he is.
BET99 opened the market on July 30 with Philadelphia’s Porter Martone at +275 and Toronto’s Gavin McKenna at +310. Behind them: Washington’s Cole Hutson at +675, San Jose’s Ivar Stenberg at +700, Chicago’s Anton Frondell at +875, Washington’s Ilya Protas at +1200, Roman Kantserov at +1500, Montreal’s Jacob Fowler and Buffalo’s Konsta Helenius at +2000 and Boston’s James Hagens at +2500.
Martone’s edge is evidence, not upside
Martone has played nine NHL regular-season games and produced 10 points in them. That is a small sample and it settles two questions that sink most rookie favourites: whether he can handle the pace, and whether an NHL coaching staff will actually put him on the ice.
Those questions are what a Calder market is really pricing. Every player on this board can play. Very few of them have a guaranteed role in October, and a rookie who spends November on a third line does not win the trophy no matter what he does with the minutes.
McKenna’s case is the role Toronto has promised
McKenna is from Whitehorse, Yukon, and played one season at Penn State, where he put up 51 points in 35 games, set the program’s freshman records for points and assists, and led the Big Ten in scoring. He is the sixth NCAA player ever taken first overall.
The part that matters for the bet is what Toronto has signalled it will do with him: first-line power-play time at 18. That is not how most clubs handle a teenager, and it is the single most reliable route to the counting numbers that decide this award. Power-play points are the cheapest points in hockey, and a first unit on a team that will spend a lot of the season trailing gets a lot of them.
There is a reason a rebuilding club can do this and a contender cannot. Toronto finished 32-36-14 and last in the Atlantic, ending a nine-year playoff run. There is no April to protect.
What could go wrong
Three things, in order of likelihood.
An 18-year-old in his first professional season across 84 games (the longest schedule since 1993-94) is a workload question nobody has data on. The new collective bargaining agreement also cuts the preseason to a maximum of four games, so McKenna arrives at opening night with less live NHL exposure than a first overall pick would have had a year ago.
And the power-play promise is a plan, not a contract. Jim Hiller is a new head coach, hired alongside Chayka’s rebuild of the front office, with Daniel Alfredsson joining as associate coach from Ottawa. New staffs revise plans in November.
The prediction
Take McKenna at +310 over Martone at +275 if you believe the promised role holds through Christmas. The 35-point gap between them prices Martone’s nine games of proof as worth more than Toronto’s stated intention, and that is roughly a coin flip dressed as a distinction.
Odds quoted were available on July 30, 2026 and will have moved.
Odds and market references describe the situation at the time of writing. You must meet the legal gambling age in your province or territory. See responsible gambling. New to betting on the NHL? Start with our guide to hockey betting.