The No. 1 Pick Isn't the Calder Favourite, and the Market Has a Reason
Gavin McKenna went first overall to Toronto and opened second on the Calder board behind Porter Martone. The gap is about nine games, not talent.
Gavin McKenna was the presumptive first overall pick in the 2026 draft class for years before he actually became one. Toronto took him at KeyBank Center in Buffalo in late June, the reward for an abysmal 2025-26 season, and the 18-year-old from Whitehorse, Yukon arrived in a city that has not had a homegrown centrepiece to build around in a very long time.
He is not the Calder favourite. That is the interesting part.
The Board
BET99 opened its 2026-27 Calder market on July 30 with Philadelphia’s Porter Martone on top at +275 and McKenna second at +310. Washington defenceman Cole Hutson sits at +675, Ivar Stenberg at +700, Anton Frondell at +875, Ilya Protas at +1200, Roman Kantserov at +1500, Jacob Fowler and Konsta Helenius both at +2000, and James Hagens at +2500.
The margin between the top two is thin, but it exists, and it is not an accident.
Nine Games Is the Whole Argument
Martone already played nine NHL regular season games last season and put up 10 points in them. That is a tiny sample and it would be foolish to project a full year from it, but it does something more valuable for an oddsmaker than production: it removes a question.
Every rookie forward faces the same three unknowns heading into a first full season. Can he handle NHL pace, will the coaching staff trust him in a scoring role, and will he stay in the lineup all year. Martone has partially answered the first two. McKenna, coming off a season at Penn State where he finished tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points in 15 goals and 36 assists, has answered neither at this level.
Books price uncertainty, not ceiling. McKenna almost certainly has the higher one.
Why McKenna Is the Better Bet Anyway
The Calder is decided by counting stats, and counting stats are decided by ice time. This is where Toronto’s situation, which is miserable for the franchise, is excellent for its rookie.
The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 and eighth in the Atlantic, missing the playoffs and ending a nine-year postseason run. A team that bad has no incentive to shelter a first overall pick, no established top-six winger whose minutes need protecting, and every reason to run him in every offensive situation from opening night. McKenna will get power-play time in October that Martone may have to earn by December.
Philadelphia, by contrast, is a functioning team with a settled goaltending picture and a deeper forward group. Martone’s path to 70 points runs through competition for deployment. McKenna’s runs through a coaching staff that needs him to be good and has nothing to lose by finding out early.
There is also the voting reality nobody at a sportsbook will say out loud. The Calder is voted on by writers, and a first overall pick in a Canadian market playing 20 minutes a night on a rebuilding team gets covered more heavily than an equivalent season in Philadelphia. That is not how it should work. It is how it has worked.
The Play
At +310, McKenna is the value side of a two-horse market where he is arguably the better prospect and definitively the one with the clearer runway. The half-point of price you give up against Martone is not worth the deployment risk you take on.
If you want a longer look, Hutson at +675 is the one worth a second glance, because defencemen who quarterback a power play accumulate assists in a way that survives a bad team around them.
Odds from BET99 as published July 30, 2026. Confirm current prices before betting.
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